Thursday, February 26, 2009

"That's Impossible!!"

If you've been reading this blog for any length of time, you'll know that I shy away from the word "impossible." Granted, I have used it before, albeit very very sparingly.

Today, when I was listening to the Obamessiah speaking about "...financial responsibility..." that single word virtually screamed for attention.

So, let's talk about the "impossible" for a moment.

First, we know that the Universe is 12.7 billion years old, give or take 100,000 years. Next, we know that our Earth is about 4.6 billion years old. We also know that our sun, Sol, is a G2-type star. And we know that within a few billion years time, around another 10 billion or so, the sun will swell into a red giant and if it doesn't consume the Earth, it will certainly boil off the oceans as well as the atmosphere. But is this something you or I should be concerned about?

Well, it is going to happen. The odds of that are 100% ... it will happen. But, I'm not going to be killed by it. You won't. Your grandchildren won't. Your great-grandchildren won't be killed by it either. So are the odds of the sun swelling into a red giant 100%, or 0%? How do you define those odds?

Next, we know that people used to be told that the human body couldn't withstand forces above 20mph or so. (Google this, you'll find it.) I don't know about you, but today on the way home, the car I was driving was going faster than 20mph. So I did the "impossible."

Then, we were told it was "impossible" for a person to go faster than the speed of sound. "Chuck" Yeager did that.

Then, we were told it was "impossible" for a human to survive in orbit. Enter Yuri Gagarin, the first human in space and the first to orbit the Earth. Although he's not alive right now, he used to be asked what it was like to do the "impossible."

Next, it was Neil Armstrong's turn. It was "impossible" for man to walk on the Moon, you see. Then, Mr Armstrong did it. You can ask him what it's like to do the "impossible."

Then (yes, I'm building up to something here) we were told it was "impossible" for a magnetar* to affect the Earth. Until SGR 1806-20** did in May 2005. And it happened from 50,000 light-years away. "Impossible?" That's what we used to think ... until it happened.

Yes, things are impossible. But as a scientist, I don't like to use that word. Most things are mathematically possible, at least, on paper. The odds of a black hole swallowing up the Earth? Yes, at some point in the remaining age of the Universe, it will happen. But I won't be killed by it, and neither will you. "Impossible?" Yes, it is theoretically possible. The odds? 1 out of 1 followed by "n" where n is the number of molecules in the area in question. In plainer words, it's going to happen ... in the order of one hundred thousand million billion trillion years (seriously.) Give or take a billion.

Here's what I'm getting at. The Obamessiah says he can balance the budget and pay for his massive spending spree by taxing only the top 2% of wage earners (the 2% of richest) Americans. My answer - impossible. You could confiscate everything they own and you still wouldn't have enough money to pay for his spending spree.

He says he can pay for his massive spending spree and that it won't be left to your children, or your children's children. My answer - impossible. To do it, he'd have to print more money (which would be backed by nothing) and the last time that was tried was in Zimbabwe.*** It didn't work there, either.

"Recent figures (as of 14 November 2008) estimate Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate at 89.7 sextillion (10^21) percent. [1]" (Links are Wikipedia's and are left intact.)

I'd like to consider myself a scientist. That means, among other things, that I don't throw out the word "impossible" very easily.

But the odds of Obama's tax and tax and spend baby spend policies working?

Impossible.

* - Magnetar: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetar
** - SGR 1806-20: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SGR_1806-20
*** - Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe

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